Reinhart/Rogoff (2010) had an impact on the policy debate; policy-makers used their results (threshold in public-debt-to-GDP of 90% beyond which growth slows) to argue for austerity. But what does the evidence tell us about growth effects of higher public debt? Several papers argue that there is indeed evidence for a negative causal effect of higher…

The “stationary bandit” view of the state derives from Mancur Olson. In the state of anarchy, some people are bandits who profit by stealing from others. This theft prevents people from increasing output, though. It is profitable for the bandit to settle down and impose taxes. By guarding their population from other bandits, it is…

→ Workers don’t want full automation. They want partnership. 46.1% of tasks got positive automation ratings, but here’s the kicker: Workers prefer “H3 equal partnership” with AI over full replacement. → Scientists divided AI adoption into 4 zones based on worker desire vs. technical capability. 41% of startup investments are going to the WRONG zones,…

In nearly all industries, Chinese firms invest more, are more productive, but earn less profit. OECD MAnufacturing Groups and Industrial Corporations (MAGIC) database—that they draw on to do this, and have written several other reports comparing industrial policies and subsidies across countries. In other recent work they look at semiconductor subsidies across the globe. Firms…

Mortgage markets are not one-size-fits-all. The U.S. is dominated by 30yr fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs). In contrast, Canada, the UK, and Sweden have much higher shares of adjustable-rate (ARMs) or short-term fixed mortgages. Institutional details matter for transmission In an FRM country like the U.S., rising rates create a “lock-in” effect. If you have a 3%…

The findings emphasize the role of leader attachment and affective polarization. Synthesizing research across subfields, there’s 5 theoretical explanations for why people support backsliding: personalistic leadership, affective polarization, populism, majoritarianism, and entanglement with the law. It then test these accounts using panel data. The strongest predictors of support for the judicial overhaul are attachment to…

The conventional wisdom often associates democracies with redistribution, but leaders in autocracies—both historical and modern—often publicize their redistribution efforts in their political communication. one potential explanation is that autocrats use such propaganda to boost their democratic legitimacy. It works because people often put a non-negligible weight on social equity in their understanding of “democracy” https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adp1274…

Have you ever wondered how social networks differ by gender? Men almost always have a lower share of female friends than women do, but the degree varies: Across countries, the CGFR is strongly predictive of gender differences in labor force participation. Within countries, we also find a strong correlation with gender attitudes in the World…

The most clear-cut finding is fairly obvious and intuitive. If you tell people to write an essay with an LLM, they will obviously not remember what they “wrote” (or likely, wholesale copy/paste/edited from a chatbot) as well as someone *not* using an LLM. The people recruited for this study are not only WEIRD (“Western, educated,…